COBRA vs. Marketplace: the real math after a layoff

The COBRA election packet quotes one number; the Marketplace quotes another after your subsidy. The comparison isn't premium vs. premium — it's four questions, in order.

Question 1: What does each actually cost per month?

COBRA: the packet's number — full premium plus 2%. Commonly $650–$800 single, $1,800–$2,400 family. Marketplace: your subsidized price, which requires estimating this calendar year's household income: months already salaried + severance (it's taxable income and it counts) + unemployment benefits + expected new-job income. People who skip the severance line get a subsidy surprise at tax time — and the repayment caps are gone as of plan year 2026.

Question 2: Is anyone mid-treatment?

Ongoing specialist care, a pregnancy, scheduled surgery, a child's therapist — this is COBRA's entire value proposition: identical network, zero disruption. Before paying for it, check whether an acceptable Marketplace plan also covers the providers in question (filter by provider before comparing prices), and ask carriers about transition-of-care provisions. If no Marketplace network works, COBRA earns its price.

Question 3: How much deductible have you already burned?

A layoff in October after a $6,000 family deductible is met is the strongest COBRA case there is — switch plans and the deductible resets to zero on January 1 anyway, so you'd pay full freight and restart. A January layoff points the opposite direction: nothing invested, everything resets regardless.

Question 4: How long until your next employer plan?

A known six-week bridge changes the game: COBRA's 60-day election is retroactive to your loss date. You can legally wait, elect and back-pay only if something happens, and let the option expire unused if nothing does. One honest caution: that's a bet that you'll act within the window and can front the back-premiums if needed — set calendar reminders, because a missed election deadline has no appeal.

The one-line summary

Mid-treatment or deductible-rich late in the year → price COBRA seriously. Healthy, early in the year, or income now in subsidy range → the Marketplace usually wins by hundreds a month. And one trap either way: electing COBRA then dropping it voluntarily mid-year does not open a new special enrollment period. Decide once, inside your 60 days, with both real numbers in front of you — the Marketplace one is a ZIP code away.